Archive - AGI Friday

Asteroids, Earthquakes, the E-M Spectrum, and Y2K

In which we try on analogies and ways to think about AGI

Jul 4 •

June 2025

Nooo, This Doesn't Count, Tesla Is Faking It

In which I grasp desperately at straws to disbelieve my eyes or at least Elon Musk's mouth

Jun 28 •

Scott Alexander's 51st Mistake

Just kidding, Scott is super vindicated, wins 3-year bet on AI image generation progress

Jun 21 •

In which we (mostly Zvi) speculate on how increasing workplace automation plays out

Jun 14 •

Ok, Fine, o3 Is an Idiot

And I am officially very gullible. Except, seriously guys, it's sooo close.

Jun 7 •

May 2025

How Smart Is ChatGPT o3?

I claim it's more reliable than a person off the street

May 30 •

Vibe-Coding a Recipe Scaling App

And so much news: Claude 4, Codex, Jules, and more FrontierMath

May 24 •

Does AlphaEvolve Count as Recursive Self-Improvement?

Also AI is on the cusp of crushing me personally at all math. Is that a big deal? Or more like how it can crush me at chess?

May 17 •

Jevons's Paradox and the Burden of Clarifying Your Ideas

In which I debate with DHH on whether programming is more like agriculture or steam power

May 10 •

Claude Is 24% of the Way to Stealing Your Job

Not actually, but it did hit 24% on a new stealing-your-job benchmark

May 3 •

April 2025

We Regret To Inform You There Will Be No Tesla Robotaxis This Summer

Also how to think about self-driving autonomy levels, and my geometric reasoning benchmark falls

Apr 26 •

Math in the Crosshairs

OpenAI cooks with new models, secret chess benchmarks, and it's a coin flip on superhuman artificial mathematicians this decade

Apr 19 •

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